The South China Sea Dispute Between China and the Philippines: The Struggle for Interests in the 21st Century

Modern Developments and the Predicted Outcome of the China-Philippines South China Sea Dispute

Early Contest Over the Islands and Reefs

This is the fourth part of a four-part series on the conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. It covers the historical developments of the 21st Century and predicts the ultimate resolution of the dispute.

As the 21st Century approached, China and the Philippines began their earnest contest over the islands and reefs.

In 1999, the Philippines started its occupation of the Second Thomas Shoal. Initially, they also intended to occupy Scarborough Shoal but were driven away by the People's Republic of China.

The 2012 Scarborough Shoal Standoff

Following this eviction, a standoff between the two countries ensued at Scarborough Shoal in 2012.

Scarborough Shoal features a lagoon, and during the standoff, a Philippine Coast Guard vessel entered the lagoon and refused to leave. In response, Chinese Coast Guard ships blocked the lagoon's entrance, forcing the Philippine boat to make a choice. Without resupply, the Philippine vessel eventually had to withdraw.

Continued Chinese Control Over Scarborough Shoal

As a result, Chinese maritime militia have occupied Scarborough Shoal since 2012, and it has remained under Chinese control since then.

A similar situation unfolded at Mischief Reef, where the slow but steady dispute process eventually brought it under full Chinese control.

The Philippines fears the same gradual encroachment on the Second Thomas Shoal and is doing everything possible to maintain its hold on this reef.

Observations and Analysis

In my analysis, whether it's the Second Thomas Shoal or the broader Nansha Islands (Spratly Islands) dispute, there are two primary considerations:

1. Restoration of Chinese Victory Rights in the Nansha Islands:

If China had not experienced a civil war following World War II, its post-war occupation of the entire Nansha Islands might have been uncontested. However, due to the civil war, China's control over the Nansha Islands was effectively nullified, leading to subsequent de facto occupations by Vietnam and the Philippines. This situation was a loss for China, resulting from its inability to control its claimed territories.

Since the 1980s, the People's Republic of China has aimed to restore its victory rights in the Nansha Islands. However, with no more unoccupied islands left, China's focus shifted to reefs, reflecting the necessity of dealing with the current reality.

2. The China-Philippines Conflict over Second Thomas Shoal:

Although a beached Philippine warship currently occupies the Second Thomas Shoal, China will have the upper hand, and the Philippines will eventually be unable to maintain its position.

The struggle over these reefs is fundamentally a test of national comprehensive strength. The Philippines cannot match China's maritime capabilities, thus relying on international courts and support from the United States.

However, as long as China manages the conflict's intensity and avoids international military intervention, it is unlikely that the Philippines can prevent these reefs from falling under Chinese control.

The aging warship will eventually disintegrate if the Philippines fails to establish a permanent maritime base at Second Thomas Shoal. Once it does, and if Philippine marines are no longer present, China will likely enforce a blockade and achieve de facto control. In such a scenario, the Philippines' occupation of Second Thomas Shoal would end.

These are my two critical viewpoints on the China-Philippines South China Sea issue.

This information is a tool to help everyone better understand the ongoing issues in the South China Sea. I welcome comments and corrections if there are any points of contention or inaccuracies. If you have valuable insights, please share them for a friendly discussion. Thank you.