Will the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines trigger an Asian conflict?

What is the background of the escalating confrontations between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea? Who will be the ultimate winner?

This is the first part of a three-part series on the conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. It examines the interests of both sides and provides a multi-perspective reconstruction of the conflict.

According to reports, Chinese and Philippine vessels had a severe "conflict" as early as March. The word "conflict" is somewhat exaggerated; it is more like a traffic accident.

The Incident in Detail

Based on the footage released afterward, a Chinese supply ship and a Philippine coast guard ship scraped each other in the waters near the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. Reckless driving on both sides caused the accident. After the collision, two Chinese coast guard ships used water cannons on the Philippine supply ship, shattering the glass of the Philippine coast guard ship and injuring four Philippine coast guards.

According to the author's investigation, the conflict in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines has lasted for 25 years and remains unresolved. What does the future hold? Let's first discuss the story of the incident site—Second Thomas Shoal.

Movement of Philippine Ships

In the early hours of March 5, four Philippine ships appeared near Second Thomas Shoal: two large coast guard ships and two smaller supply ships. These four ships departed from two Philippine ports the night before, sailing all night to reach the waters near Second Thomas Shoal.

Chinese Surveillance and Response

Since they departed at night, they were spotted by a Chinese Coast Guard helicopter about six hours after departure, followed by Chinese coast guard ships tailing the Philippine vessels. At dawn, the Philippine coast guard and supply ships met at a reef and formed a convoy to advance toward Second Thomas Shoal.

The Second Thomas Shoal is a shallow reef in the Spratly Islands's eastern part. In 1999, the Philippines intentionally grounded a warship on Second Thomas Shoal. The People's Republic of China claimed that this action infringed on its sovereignty and demanded that the Philippines immediately remove the stranded warship.

Philippines' Strategy

However, the Philippines did not comply, and after prolonged exposure to the elements, the warship became impossible to remove. Currently, 7-12 Philippine marines are stationed on the warship to assert the Philippines' sovereignty over Second Thomas Shoal.

This approach is similar to China's earlier actions in the Spratly Islands. To declare sovereignty over the Spratly Islands, China built many stilt houses on the islands. However, instead of stilt houses, the Philippines has a warship.

China hopes the warship will disintegrate soon. Once it does, the Philippine Marines will no longer be able to stay on the warship, allowing China to occupy the Second Thomas Shoal and ultimately declare sovereignty.

Philippines' Perspective

The Philippines hopes the warship will continue to exist. As long as the warship exists, Philippine marines can continue to be stationed there, effectively asserting sovereignty.

Thus, Based on their respective interests, China and the Philippines have engaged in a 25-year-long struggle over the Second Thomas Shoal.

Because there are 7-12 Philippine marines on the warship, the Philippines must supply Second Thomas Shoal every 1-2 months. Supplies, including water, vegetables, and food, are delivered by supply ships to help the stationed personnel survive.

China's Response to Supply Missions

During these 25 years, China has intercepted supplies to the warship, but perhaps based on humanitarian principles, the frequency and intensity of interceptions could have been higher. A complete blockade could cause starvation, leading to more significant issues.

So, in reality, every 1-2 months, both sides play a cat-and-mouse game around the supply ships. It's like clockwork, happening very regularly.

Unusual Nature of Recent Conflict

The recent conflict is unique in that the Philippines dispatched two coast guard ships to accompany a supply ship, which is a more substantial action than usual. China is particularly concerned about the nature of the supplies being transported.

If they include items beyond water, food, and cement, reinforcing the warship could pose a significant issue. China is unable to resort to direct force to sink the warship.

Regarding Philippine supply ships, China believes that providing water and food supplies is acceptable, but increasing the scale is not. Over the past year, the Philippines frequently dispatched coast guard ships to accompany supply missions.

These missions were often covered by journalists from BBC, CNN, and other media outlets, resulting in widespread international media coverage of the China-Philippines conflict at sea.

This explains the conflicts around Second Thomas Shoal in the past year or two.

The March 5 Conflict

On March 5, when the four Philippine ships rushed to the Second Thomas Shoal, China immediately dispatched 14 boats. These included Chinese coast guard and maritime militia ships.

The naval militia is essentially an organization under the Coast Guard, though its presence appears less aggressive as it can be portrayed as a civilian organization. However, this organization is directly controlled by the Chinese Coast Guard.

These 14 ships were larger in tonnage and size. They initially intended to block the Philippine vessels from approaching Second Thomas Shoal. Consequently, the conflict broke out when Chinese coast guard ships blocked the route to Second Thomas Shoal.

Collision and Aftermath

During the interception, the ships scraped against each other, and the Philippine Coast Guard used fenders to prevent severe damage. At this point, the journalists on board recorded the incident, capturing footage favorable to their side.

Later, the Philippines released many clear photos of the Chinese coast guard during the conflict.

Strategic Maneuvering by Chinese Coast Guard

Next, the Coast Guard's measure was to break into the formation of the four Philippine ships and separate the Coast Guard ships from the supply ships. Since supply ships are usually smaller (50-100 tons), while Philippine Coast Guard ships range from 2,000 to 3,000 tons, handling the supply ships alone is much easier.

After separation, two Chinese coast guard ships immediately used water cannons on the supply ship. The water cannon attack injured four people and damaged the ship, forcing the Philippine supply ship to retreat.

After returning to the Philippines, a lieutenant general criticized China's dangerous actions for causing significant harm to their supply ship.

According to the Philippines, another supply ship managed to break through the blockade due to its smaller size and quickly turned to complete the supply mission for the warship on Second Thomas Shoal.

Conclusion

Thus, the March 5 conflict unfolded.

Now the question arises: who does Second Thomas Shoal belong to? What is the future outcome of the China-Philippines conflict over the Second Thomas Shoal?